In the majority of areas we are seeing a lot more active listings compared with the recent past. In some segments of the market, the supply situation has eased up a lot. However there are always exceptions. In many of the luxury areas and in a few outlying locations, supply has fallen instead. The following ZIP codes have seen a reduction in active single family listings (excluding Under Contract) over the last two months:
- Phoenix 85009, 85016, 85018, 85020, 85021, 85044
- Mesa 85215
- Apache 85120
- Casa Grande 85122
- Paradise Valley 85253
- Scottsdale 85259. 85260, 85262, 85266
- Rio Verde 85263
- Congress 85322
- Sun City West 85375
- Buckeye 85396
The steepest rise in active single family listings (excluding UCB) has occurred in the following ZIP codes over the last two months:
What can be concluded is that inventory is increasing not because of new listings coming along, but because existing active listings are getting accepted offers more slowly. This is consistent with a fall in demand being the primary cause. If supply of new listings is fairly static then a fall in demand will lead to growth in active listings. This is the typical effect of a market that is returning to normal. Average price per square foot for sales has increased over 20% since last year and interest rates, while still low, have jumped quickly over the last three months. Both of these would be expected to dampen demand. Everything is behaving normally.
Some people are hyper-sensitized to any slowdown in the market due to the market crash that started developing in late 2005. They see an increase in active listings as an ominous sign of trouble ahead. This is not a conclusion that is based on facts. The number of active listings in the ZIP codes above is not abnormal and still remains below average and far below the peaks we saw during the period between 2006 and 2011.
The data used to create the Cromford Report™ is obtained from public records and obtained under license from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc (ARMLS). Cromford Associates LLC and ARMLS expressly disclaim and make no representations or warranties of any kind, whether express, implied or statutory, as to the accuracy of the data used or the merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.